Demand and Economic Evolution

Here are four developments in economic history that raise questions about demand:

1. Agricultural prices have fallen fairly steadily since 1910. During that time, agricultural employment and incomes have declined steadily.

2. Computer prices have fallen steadily at least since 1960. During that time, the computer industry has expanded and become more and more important.

3. The LP record industry cut prices in an experiment, and profits increased, leading to industry growth.

4. Public transportation services have to increase their prices to reduce their deficit by increasing fare revenues.

How can we sort these seeming contradictions out?

Revenue and Demand

A first step is to distinguish between sales revenue and price. Revenue is

R=p*Q

The product of price and quantity sold. When the record industry and the computer industry cut their prices, they sold so many more records and computers that their sales revenue increased. But that didn't work for agriculture and public transportation -- if they cut prices, they only sell a little more, and their sales revenues and incomes fall.

Demand in General

To make sense of this -- and, indeed, for any practical applications of the economics of demand -- we need to know something about the numerical characteristics of the demand relationship. For example: we know that if the price is cut, quantity sold will increase. But how much will it increase.

We cannot say much about this in general. The answer will vary from industry to industry. The answer may be different for agriculture, for example, than for computers.

What we can do is define some general terminology and principles to understand these differences.

Elasticity of Demand

A key concept for this purpose is the price elasticity of demand. Elasticity of demand is

Elasticity of demand is a measure of how strongly the quantity demanded responds to a change in price.

Noticing that

We can see that the elasticity is related to the slope (and the derivative) but is not quite the same as the slope of the demand curve.


Elasticity and Slope

While elasticity and slope are not the same thing, we can roughly correlate elastic demand with a shallow slope of the demand curve, and conversely.

The figure above shows an example of high elasticity: a small decline in price (about 20%) leads to a large increase in quantity (about 120%), so that elasticity would be about 6.

The Other Side

This figure shows an example of inelasticity: a large decrease in price (about 75%) leads to a small increase in quantity (about 25%), so that elasticity would be about 0.33.

Example: Elasticity of Demand

For example, in fiscal year 1990, SEPTA raised their fares in two steps from $1.15 to $1.50, the number of riders decreased by 6%. Since the increase in fares was 30%, this would give an approximate elasticity of 6/30=0.2. This is only approximate, since some other things were changing at the same time. In particular, SEPTA claimed that the ridership would have decreased by 3.5% just because of population decrease. That would leave 2.5% decrease because of the fare increase, and that would give an elasticity of 2.5%/30%=0.083. In any case, it is clear that the demand for SEPTA services in the city is very inelastic. (Figures mostly from the Philadelphia Inquirer, Oct. 28, 1990, pp. 1B, 4B).

More Terminology

When

>1 we say that "demand is elastic."

As in "The demand for computers is elastic."

When

<1 we say that "demand is inelastic."

As in "The demand for public transportation is inelastic."

There is no brief term for an elasticity of exactly one.

Some Determinants of Elasticity

Elasticity will be greater --

Application

The demand for an individual firm's product will be different than that for the whole industry, and the elasticity of demand will be greater than the elasticity of demand for the entire industry.

Here's why:

The products of other firms in the industry are close substitutes for the product of any one particular firm. Each firm faces many, close substitutes -- making for highly elastic demand. However, for the industry as a whole, the substitute products are not so close or numerous, so the elasticity is lower.

But this is an important point in itself, as we will see later on.

Elasticity and Revenue 1

Elasticity is a key to understanding the relationship between price and sales revenue.

Example: Demand for public transportation is inelastic -- probably about 0.3. So, when the price is raised by 1%, quantity demanded declines by only three-tenths of 1%, and revenue increases by seven-tenths of 1%.

Example: The demand for computers is elastic, so when prices are cut by 1%, quantity demanded increases by more than 1%, and sales revenue increases.

Elasticity and Revenue 2

Here is how price changes, elasticity and revenue changes are interrelated:

Elasticity and Revenue

When elasticity is And price Then revenue
>1 increases decreases
>1 decreases increases
=1 increases doesn't change
=1 decreases doesn't change
<1 increases increases
<1 decreases decreases

Elasticity and Revenue 3

This relationship can explain some of the puzzles of economic events.

Example:

Demand for agricultural products (industry as a whole) is inelastic. Thus, when the weather is good or technical progress makes farmers more efficient, prices of farm products decline, and farmers' sales revenue fall with them.

Why are the farmers "crazy" enough to cut their prices? Each individual farmer has a firm demand curve that is elastic -- since his products are very good substitutes for those of thousands of other farmers -- so each farmer gains revenue by cutting.

But when they all do it at once, they all lose.

Income Elasticity

Economists use formulae like "elasticity" to measure the responsiveness of quantity demanded (and other things) to various influences. For example, we have the income elasticity of demand,

If the income elasticity is greater than one (demand is income-elastic) then demand increases more than proportionately with income.

For example, the demand for beer is income-inelastic.

Cross Elasticity

Sometimes the price of one good will influence the demand for another good. We measure this by the cross-elasticity of demand:

If the cross elasticity is positive then the two goods are substitutes. If it is negative, then they are complements.

For example, butter and margarine are substitutes, so we would expect their cross-elasticities to be positive.

Summary

For many practical applications, we need to know about the numerical characteristics of demand for various goods and services. The most important of these is the price elasticity of demand: